Ranking of risks in PPP
Re: Understanding the risks in China’s PPP projects: ranking of their probability and consequence
Authors: Yongjian Ke, ShouQing Wang, Albert P.C. Chan and Esther Cheung
accepted by Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management (EI)
Purpose – Based on the Chinese government’s increased Public-Private Partnership (PPP) experience in the last decade, they have made a lot of efforts to improve the investment environment. This paper hence aims to conduct a more up to date evaluation of the potential risks in China’s PPP projects.
Design/methodology/approach – As part of a comprehensive research looking at implementing PPP, a two-round Delphi survey was conducted with experienced practitioners to identify the key risks that could be encountered in China’s PPP projects. The probability of occurrence and severity of the consequence for the selected risks were derived from the surveys and used to calculate their relative risk significance index score.
Findings – The results showed that the top ten risks identified according to their risk significance index score are: (1) Government’s intervention, (2) Poor political decision-making, (3) Financial risk, (4) Government’s reliability, (5) Market demand change, (6) Corruption, (7) Subjective evaluation, (8) Interest rate change, (9) Immature juristic system, and (10) Inflation. Further analysis was conducted on these risks so that the possible consequence, the most impacted parties, and the preferred allocation are discussed. Recommendations on commercial principles or contract terms between the Chinese government and private consortium are also provided.
Originality/value – These up to date findings concerning the probability and consequence of key risks would provide a valuable reference for private investors who are planning to invest in infrastructure projects in China.
Keywords: risk identification, risk management, public private partnership (PPP), China
Article Type: Research paper
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